Predictive risks assessment of power supply interruption to oil production consumers, taking into account changes in significant factors

THE GOAL. To develop a decision-making procedure for the commissioning of equipment in the power supply system of oil production facilities in accordance with the minimum risk criterion. To substantiate the effectiveness of its practical application in the tasks of equipment repair management with the "technical condition" strategy based on a risk-oriented approach.

METHODS. When solving the tasks, the following methods were used: the flowchart method for calculating the structural reliability indicators of the distribution electrical network with changes in its operational composition and technical condition of elements (equipment), the method for predicting the risks of power supply disruption in the circuit of each technological consumer, taking into account the possibility of reserving and imposing emergency recovery of the main element on the planned repair of the backup, scenario approach for determining scenarios for changing the risk of power supply failures when the operating state of the electrical network circuit changes.

RESULTS. As a result of solving the problems, the values of the structural reliability indicators of the studied distribution electrical network are calculated under the most likely scenarios of changes in its operational composition and technical condition of equipment, the features of the integrated assessment of the technical condition of objects of voltage class 6 kV in their operating conditions are considered. The functions of forecasting the probabilities of power supply failures of oil production facilities are obtained depending on the integral assessment of their technical condition, which, along with the severity of the consequences of failures, make it possible to predict risks.

CONCLUSION. A computational procedure has been developed that includes mathematical models and an algorithm for prioritizing equipment with a strategy "according to technical condition" when putting it into repair based on a forecast of the risks of power supply disruption to consumers. On a concrete example, the verification of calculation models and algorithm was carried out, the effectiveness of the developed computational procedure and its applicability in solving practical problems of managing repairs of electrical equipment of oil production facilities based on a risk-oriented approach was shown.

1. Grabchak EP. Nadezhnoe elektrosnabzhenie – eto prioritet dlya vseh energetikov // Energeticheskaya politika. 2021;7 (161): 4-9. doi: 10.46920/2409-5516_2021_7161_4. Bounjimi M.E., Abdul-Nour G. Smart Asset Management in Power Industry: A Review of the Key Technologies. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology. 2021. 10(10), pp. 388-393. doi: 10.17577/IJERTV10IS100149.

2. Manukyan MM, Gredasova EE. Risk-orientirovannyj podhod, osnovannyj na ocenke otkazov i narusheniya celostnosti oborudovaniya v rabote neftepererabatyvayuschih proizvodstv. [Abstract] In: Instituty i mehanizmy innovacionnogo razvitiya: mirovoj opyt i rossijskaya praktika, Kazan'. 2021:324-328.

3. Kisuule M, Hernando-Gil I, Serugunda J. et al. Stochastic Planning and Operational Constraint Assessment of System-Customer Power Supply Risks in Electricity Distribution Networks. Sustainability. 2021;13:9579. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179579

4. Ovchinnikova TI, Potockij EP., Firsova VM. Risk-orientirovannyj podhod pri ocenke opasnostej v gornoj promyshlennosti. Gornyj informacionno-analiticheskij byulleten'. 2021:(2–1): 199-208. doi: 10.25018/0236-1493-2021-21-0-199-208.

5. Hajder S, Finkel'shtejn M, Lisanov MV. et al. Zarubezhnyj opyt ispol'zovaniya risk-orientirovannogo podhoda pri ekspluatacii tehnicheskih ustrojstv na neftegazovyh ob'ektah. Bezopasnost' truda v promyshlennosti. 2015;8: 24-30.

6. Antonenko IN. Risk-orientirovannyj podhod k upravleniyu proizvodstvennymi aktivami energetiki. Energoekspert. 2020;1 (73): 26-33.

7. Kongezos V, Jellum E. Industrial Asset Management strategies for the Oil & Gas sector, IET International Conference of Asset Management in London, November 27th. 2012, pp. 1-6.

8. Sekretarev YuA, Levin V.M. Risk-orientirovannye modeli upravleniya remontom oborudovaniya v sistemah elektrosnabzheniya s monopotrebitelem. Journal of Siberian Federal University. Engineering & Technologies. 2021;14(1): 17–32. doi: 10.17516/1999-494X-0295

9. Ndawula MB, Djokic SZ, Hernando-Gil I. Reliability Enhancement in Power Networks under Uncertainty from Distributed Energy Resources. Energies. 2019;12:531. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12030531.

10. Oboskalov VP. Problemy rascheta strukturnoj nadezhnosti sistem elektrosnabzheniya s ispol'zovaniem veroyatnostnogo ekvivalentirovaniya. Elektrichestvo. 2015;12:4-12.

11. Boyarova D.A. Indeks tekhnicheskogo sostoyaniya dlya oborudovaniya 0,4-6(10) kV energo obektov neftedobychi. In: Nauka. Tekhnologii. Innovacii. Novosibirsk, 06 – 10 Dec 2021. Novosibirsk. Izd-vo NGTU. 2021; 4: 7–12.

12. Levin VM, Guzhov NP, Boyarova DA. K voprosu ob upravlenii remontami elektrooborudovaniya neftedobychi so strategiej po tehnicheskomu sostoyaniyu. Izvestiya vuzov. Problemy energetiki. 2022;24(1): 39-51. doi: 10.30724/1998-9903-2022-24-1-39-51.

13. Levin VM, Guzhov NP, Chernenko NA. et al. Optimization of impacts parameters on the equipment of electrical networks during operation according to the technical condition. 2020 IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 1089. 2021, 012017. doi: 10.1088/1757-899X/1089/1/012017.

14. Abgaryan LS. Vyyavlenie osnovnyh riskov neftedobyvayuschej kompanii i predlozhenie osnovnyh putej ih preodoleniya. Ekonomika i menedzhment innovacionnyh tehnologij. 2017. № 1 Dostupno po: https://ekonomika.snauka.ru/2017/01/13889. Ssylka aktivna na 15 avgusta 2022.

15. Kostyukov VN, Kostyukov AlV, Kostyukov AnV. Monitoring riska ekspluatacii oborudovaniya v real'nom vremeni. Dinamika sistem, mehanizmov i mashin, 2014: 126-129.

16. Karpov M.V. Metodika ocenki uscherba ot otkaza elektrosetevogo oborudovaniya v sisteme upravleniya proizvodstvennymi aktivami. Vestnik Omskogo universiteta. Seriya «Ekonomika». 2018. № 3 (63): 29-37. doi: 10.25513/1812-3988.2018.3.29-37.

17. Novozhilov E.O. Principy postroeniya matricy riskov. Funkcional'naya bezopasnost'. Teoriya i praktika. 2015: 73-79. Dostupno po: https://www.dependability.ru/jour/article/viewFile/98/267. Ssylka aktivna na 15 avgusta 2022.

18. Gitelman L.D., Kozhevnikov M.V., Chebotareva G.S. et al. Asset Management of energy company based on risk-oriented strategy. Energy Production and Management in the 21st Century IV. 2020;246:125–135. doi: 10.2495/EPM200121.

19. Grabchak EP, Medvedeva EA, Petrenko AO. et al. O metodologii rascheta tehnicheskogo riska na osnove veroyatnosti i posledstvij otkaza funkcional'nogo uzla i edinicy osnovnogo tehnologicheskogo oborudovaniya. Elektroenergiya. Peredacha i raspredelenie. 2019;1(52): 22-29.