Methodology for assessing the technical condition of electrical networks based on determining the probability of their failure

RELEVANCE. The current technical condition of electrical networks at the moment is generally unsatisfactory with an average level of physical wear of about 60-70 %, therefore,the development of fundamentally new methods for assessing their technical condition is currently an urgent task. The methods of assessing the technical condition of electrical networks analyzed in the article are based to a greater extent on the subjective and insufficiently accurate method of expert assessments, which actually does not take into account the data of its technical diagnostics, as well as statistics of defects and failures. OBJECT. To develop a methodology for assessing the technical condition of electrical networks, which would be based on probabilistic models characterizing the physical processes occurring in electrical networks, as well as data from their technical diagnostics, statistics of defects and failures. METHODS. To assess the technical condition of electrical networks, a probabilistic assessment method was used. In this case, the methodology involves sequential determination of the probabilities of occurrence of selected groups of emergency modes, the probability of failure of a network element as a whole, as well as the probability of failure of an object and a group of objects of the power grid. RESULTS. Based on the research results, probabilistic models of failure of electrical networks were obtained, which, unlike the assessment methods discussed in the article, are based on data from technical diagnostics and inspections of electrical equipment. An example of the implementation of the developed methodology on real electrical network objects is given. CONCLUSION. The developed methodology allows for a more reasonable prioritization of technical impacts on electrical grid equipment, which will make it possible to replace or repair equipment that has actually exhausted its physical resource, which will reduce the frequency of emergency conditions and reduce damage from power supply interruptions.

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