Quantitative assessment of the impact of diagnostics on the reliability of pipelines of heating networks

The article provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of diagnostics on the reliability of pipelines of heating networks.

RELEVANCE. The energy and economic efficiency of the entire heat supply system depend on the reliable operation of pipeline networks. However, the impact of diagnostics of heating networks on quantitative indicators of their reliability remains insufficiently studied. purpose.

OBJECT. The aim of the work is to quantify the impact of diagnostic monitoring on the reliability of pipelines of heating networks.

METHODS. The calculations were performed using an exponential reliability model. Scenario modeling was carried out for pipelines of thermal networks in Kazan, taking into account various levels of diagnostic efficiency. results.

RESULTS. The dependences of the probability of trouble-free operation and the service life of Kazan pipelines during diagnostics with different probability of detection of defects are obtained. It is shown that the introduction of diagnostics with high efficiency of defect detection can reduce accidents by 70%, and increase the service life of pipelines by more than 3 times. A technical and economic assessment of the effectiveness of the implementation of diagnostics has been carried out.

CONCLUSION. Regular monitoring of the technical condition leads to a significant reduction in the failure rate and an increase in the service life of pipelines. The economic effect of using diagnostic tools with average efficiency will be about 34 million rubles/year, and with high efficiency – 71 million rubles/year.

1. Ostreykovskiy VA, Silin YaV. Statisticheskiy analiz nadezhnosti neftepromyslovykh truboprovodov. Oil and Gas Business. 2008;(1):14. (In Russ).

2. Sadykov AF, Mukhametzyanov BI, Chernyak MV, et al. Razrabotka i primeneniye instrumenta prognozirovaniya ostatochnogo resursa truboprovodov s ispolzovaniyem metodov mashinnogo obucheniya. PROneft. Professionally about Oil. 2025;10(2):132-143. (In Russ). doi: 10.51890/2587-7399-2025-10-2-132-143.

3. Zaytsev VA, Galitskiy VV, Gasho EG. Povysheniye nadezhnosti teplosnabzheniya kak instrument energoeffektivnosti pri ekspluatatsii teplovoy seti. Safety in Technosphere. 2012;(6):52-56. (In Russ).

4. Moskalev IL, Litvak VV. Povrezhdayemost osnovnykh uzlov setey teplosnabzheniya gorodov Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Assets Engineering. 2015;326(7):70-80. (In Russ).

5. Akhmetova IG, Akhmetov TR. Analiz dopolnitelnykh faktorov pri opredelenii intensivnosti otkazov truboprovodov teplovykh setey. Thermal Engineering. 2019;(10):50-56. (In Russ). doi: 10.1134/S0040363619100011.

6. Akhmetova I.G., Sabirzanov A.Ya., Nurislamova A.R., Akhmetov D.T. Improving the district heating system: analysis and proposals to increase reliability. KAZAN STATE POWER ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY BULLETIN. 2025. Vol. 17. No. 1 (65). P. 71-79.

7. Gumerov IK, Shmakov VA, Galyautdinov AA, Ryabov IA. Problemy otsenki ostatochnogo resursa i bezopasnosti magistralnykh truboprovodov. Problems of Gathering, Treatment and Transportation of Oil and Oil Products. 2006;(66):140-156. (In Russ).

8. Gridin SV, Biryukov AB. Analiz metodov diagnostirovaniya truboprovodov teplovykh setey dlya opredeleniya ikh fakticheskogo tekhnicheskogo sostoyaniya. Bulletin of Donetsk National University. Series G: Technical Sciences. 2024;(2):69-79. (In Russ). doi: 10.5281/zenodo.12548579.

9. Trukhanov VM. Nadezhnost tekhnicheskikh sistem tipa podvizhnykh ustanovok na etape proyektirovaniya i ispytaniya opytnykh obraztsov. Moscow: Mashinostroyeniye; 2003. (In Russ).

10. Politova T.O., Zagretdinov A.R., Sidorov M.V., Ziganshin Sh.G., Vankov Yu.V. Machine learning methods in the development of leak detection techniques. Power engineering: research, equipment, technology. 2025;27(2):177-186. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30724/1998-9903-2025-27-2-177-186.

11. Zagretdinov A, Ziganshin Sh, Vankov Yu, et al. Determination of Pipeline Leaks Based on the Analysis the Hurst Exponent of Acoustic Signals. Water. 2022;14(19):3190. doi: 10.3390/w14193190.

12. Mirgorodskiy AI. Otchet o sostoyanii sistem teplosnabzheniya krupneyshikh gorodov v 2024 godu [Electronic resource]. Moscow: Soyuz organizatsiy po naladke teploenergeticheskogo oborudovaniya i setey (Soyuz TeploNaladka); 2026. Available at: https://heatunion.ru/wpcontent/uploads/2026/01/Сравнение-систем-теплоснабжения-по-индикаторам-развития.pdf. Accessed: 15 Apr 2026. (In Russ).

13. O vozmozhnostyakh diagnostiki truboprovodov teplovykh setey. Novosti teplosnabzheniya. 2024;(236). (In Russ).

14. Zaman D, Tiwari MK, Gupta AK, Sen D. A review of leakage detection strategies for pressurised pipeline in steady-state. Engineering Failure Analysis. 2020;109:104264. doi: 10.1016/j.engfailanal.2019.104264.

15. Korlapati NVS, Khan F, Noor Q, Mirza S, Vaddiraju S. Review and analysis of pipeline leak detection methods. Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering. 2022;2(4). doi: 10.1016/j.jpse.2022.100074.

16. Li J, Zeng F, Xie J, et al. A review of damage mechanisms, prediction methods, and risk management strategies for urban underground steel pipelines. Results in Engineering. 2026;29:109701. doi: 10.1016/j.rineng.2026.109701.